Call Us: 949-458-7794

White Papers:

Are There Limits To Growth?

  • David Chereb, PhD

Abstract & Introduction

Of course there are limits to growth. But most limits are temporary. The issue we are asking is if we can realistically increase GDP growth from the 2% rate we've been experiencing lately to over 4% per year. The answer is yes. However, it is not likely we will achieve this more rapid rate because the U.S. lacks the will to make it happen.

The cost benefit ratio is positive, i.e. it is worth enacting rapid growth policies but at least a few people will be worse off. Because of this it will be difficult to put rapid growth policies into place. That's a shame because the rewards are so high for so many. How high? Read on.

Click link to download a pdf version of the article: GDP Growth

Data Mining Lite

  • David Chereb, PhD
  • John H. Mercer, MBA

Abstract & Introduction

"We are drowning in information and starved for knowledge"--John Naisbitt

If you’re Bill Gates or Michael Eisner you can afford data mining today. Data mining is beginning to help large businesses find information hidden in existing data. These companies are drowning in data. With millions of customers and billions of transactions every week, they need massive ‘data warehouses’ and specialized ‘data mining’ tools.

But, you need to maximize profits as much as they do. Discovering hidden relationships in your data is just as vital for your business. ‘Data Mining Lite’ is our term for applying data mining techniques for smaller firms.

The quote from John Naisbitt is right on target. Data mining is the light at the end of the data tunnel. This article will show what data mining is, how much it costs, and whether it makes sense for you.

Click link to download a pdf version of the article: Data Mining Lite

Does Data Mining Improve Business Forecasting?

  • David Chereb, PhD
  • Presented at:
  • The 18th International Symposium on Forecasting
  • Edinburgh, Scotland, June 1998


Under some circumstances data mining results reduce the accuracy of business forecasts. The conditions under which this occurs are common in business projections that must include structural change. This data-mining anomaly can be prevented with proper design techniques. The analysis centers on Bayesian techniques for incorporating apriori knowledge into the data set. The apriori knowledge frequently is based on economic laws; especially the laws of supply and demand. The net result of applying this apriori knowledge is a robust, adaptive forecasting system.

Click link to download a PDF version of the article: Data Mining & Business Forecasting

A Golden Age of Growth

  • David Chereb, PhD

Why the U.S. Can Grow Faster Without Inflation


The U.S. economy is enjoying unprecedented prosperity. The long running combination of full employment, rapid growth and low inflation is confounding followers who use traditional models of economic growth. They cannot explain why the U.S. continues to do so well. This article shows why a structural shift has occurred. Computers, competition and renewed entrepreneurial spirit have caused the shift. The result is a more elastic GDP supply curve and a more volatile economy. This more elastic supply curve means the U.S. economy can continue to grow at close to 4% per year, with full employment, and not generate higher inflation. The payoff to recognizing this, is higher incomes, better schools and a balanced budget. Failure to incorporate the new supply curve in our planning means robbing families of income, and corporations of higher profits for many years to come.

Click link to download a PDF version of the article: A Golden Age of Growth


Newsletter 1

Data Mining, Competitive Analysis and Business Intelligence Tools.

Download it now (in Adobe pdf format) - Data Trends 10

Newsletter 2

Demographic Trends, Global Warming and more.

Download it now (in Adobe pdf format) - Data Trends 12